de Daniel Farber

Pe 15 august 2017, presedintele Trump a emis un ordin executiv pentru accelerarea deciziilor federale legate de infrastructura, permitand doar 90 de zile pentru luarea deciziilor de autorizare si reducerea cerintelor privind siguranta la inundatii. Republicanii entuziasti au salutat pasul. De exemplu, Rep. escorte din botosani singamore.com Ralph Abraham (R-LA) a declarat ca este „incantat de decizia domnului Trump”. El a respins inundatiile catastrofale din Louisiana anul precedent ca un „eveniment izolat”, spunand ca „amenintarea mai mare. . escorte belgia carolinahandling.biz . provine din reglementari costisitoare. ” Zece zile mai tarziu, uraganul Harvey a lovit Texas si vestul Louisiana. escorte de futut d0t.crystaldecisons.com

O uncie de prevenire este in valoare de un kilogram de leac, sau asa este maxim. Cu greu ar putea fi mai potrivit decat in ​​cazul proiectelor de atenuare a inundatiilor, intrucat investitiile in rezistenta se platesc singure de multe ori cand se lovesc dezastre naturale. De exemplu, conform unui raport recent:

Studii recente au indicat ca fiecare dolar cheltuit pentru construirea sau imbunatatirea cladirilor pentru a se conforma noilor coduri economiseste 4 dolari in daune. escorte ieftine anal bucuresti muslimlife.susanreinstein.com . . . escorte recomandate bucuresti zeusventures.com [T] se intoarce pe investitii in constructii la codurile modernizate, paralel cu investitiile similare in eforturile de creare a unei infrastructuri mai rezistente. Studiile au indicat ca este posibil sa primiti o rata de rentabilitate 6: 1 a subventiilor federale care au fost prevazute in eforturile de atenuare, inclusiv imbunatatirea infrastructurii.

Cerintele federale actuale de rezilienta in cladiri si infrastructura sunt vizibile si au nevoie de o revizuire. escorte alba iulia ossokolje.edu.ba

Cerinte curente de rezilienta

Levee si paravane

Peste 100.000 de mile de parghie se intind de-a lungul cailor navigabile ale Statelor Unite, inclusiv aproximativ o cincime din toate judetele americane, multe dintre acestea fiind detinute sau operate de state, localitati sau entitati private. Gurile de pamant sunt construite din sol compactat, care este de obicei acoperit cu iarba, pietris, piatra, asfalt sau beton pentru a ajuta la prevenirea eroziunii. escorte targovisre eye.regalrental.com Peretii de inundatii, care se gasesc in general in zonele urbane, sunt din beton. Levierele necesita o intretinere activa, cum ar fi indepartarea copacilor sau a altor vegetatii, repararea daunelor din beton sau completarea gropilor de animale.

Oficiul de Responsabilitate a Guvernului (GAO) a raportat ca guvernul federal nu are un program care supravegheaza toate efectele din intreaga natiune si nu exista standarde nationale pentru siguranta parghiei. escorte izvor worldcreativesummit.com In schimb, Corpul de Ingineri din Armata (Corpul) incearca sa supravegheze doar cele 15.000 de mile de parghii care implica constructii, intretinere sau reabilitare federala. In conformitate cu o lege din 2014, Agentia Federala de Management pentru Situatii de Urgenta (FEMA) si Corpul trebuiau, de asemenea, sa stabileasca linii directoare federale de securitate si un sistem de clasificare a pericolelor bazate exclusiv pe consecintele potentiale asociate cu o defectiune a parghiei, spre deosebire de probabilitatea sau probabilitatea de o defectiune de levier. escorte braila www.zarin.biz

La mijlocul anului 2016, agentiile au inregistrat progrese putine in unele sarcini si niciun progres in ceea ce priveste altele impuse de statut, pe care le-au atribuit lipsei de resurse. In afara de unele lucrari privind incorporarea informatiilor FEMA intr-o baza de date a Corpului Armatei, situatia a fost sumbra:

Agentiile nu au intreprins nicio actiune cu privire la activitatile nationale cheie legate de siguranta pragului pentru care au fost responsabile si au ratat cateva termene statutare pentru elaborarea de orientari si rapoarte. De exemplu, agentiile nu au luat nicio actiune in acest sens. http://escorte hunedoara.net/ insuranceportfolioanalysis.org . . ghidurile nationale voluntare de siguranta a nivelului de levier, din data de 10 iunie 2015; sau un raport, din 10 iunie 2015, care trebuia sa includa, printre altele, recomandari privind legislatia si alte actiuni congresene necesare pentru a asigura siguranta nationala a paraului. escorte toplita netnlap.com In plus, potrivit oficialilor agentiei pe care i-am intervievat, agentiile nu au niciun plan actual pentru implementarea activitatilor ramase.

Alte infrastructuri federale

In 2015, presedintele Obama a emis un ordin executiv care impunea masuri de precautie mai mari pentru inundatii pentru infrastructura finantata federal, in special in astfel de facilitati critice precum spitalele. Desi a lasat loc pentru unele alternative, ordinul Obama a autorizat trei abordari principale pentru gestionarea riscului de inundatii pentru infrastructura federala:

(i) zona de pericol de inundatii si inundatii care rezulta din utilizarea unei abordari stiintifice informate despre clima, care utilizeaza cele mai bune date, metode hidrologice si hidraulice si actionabile disponibile, care integreaza schimbarile actuale si viitoare ale inundatiilor bazate pe stiinta climei. transexuali escorte ustraveldoc.com . . . escorte ro xxx theequitablelife.info

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(ii) suprafata de pericol de inundatii si inundatii care rezulta din utilizarea valorii bordului liber obtinut prin adaugarea de 2 metri suplimentari la cota de inundatie de baza pentru actiuni non-critice si prin adaugarea de 3 metri suplimentari la cota de inundatie de baza pentru actiuni critice;

(iii) the area subject to flooding by the 0.2 percent annual chance flood.

Just days before Hurricane Harvey, Trump repealed the order, thrilling Representative Abraham and restoring a previous standard dating from the Carter administration. escorte iasi publi24 lifetimetraining.fusion-universal.com Section 6 of Executive 13801 states, “Executive Order 13690 of January 30, 2015 (Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and a Process for Further Soliciting and Considering Stakeholder Input), is revoked.”

The Obama order seems to have had three fatal flaws from Trump’s perspective: It made construction more expensive, it was issued by Obama, and it mentioned climate change. In the long run, American taxpayers will find themselves paying out more in disaster relief for buildings they helped pay for in the first place because the government failed to require proper flood precautions. escorte ianca acceleratormovie.com

In February 2018, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) quietly reinstated some of the Obama requirements for post-hurricane housing funding. escorte mamaia www.physicianworldwide.com Chapter VI(B), § 32(e) of the Notice setting forth requirements for disaster recovery community development block grantees provides:

All structures . . . escorte domina industrialcontrolsystemssecurellc.net   designed principally for residential use and located in the 100-year (or 1 percent annual chance) floodplain that receive assistance for new construction, repair of substantial damage, or substantial improvement . . . escorte vaslui www.myanmarupdatechannel.com must be elevated with the lowest floor, including the basement, at least two feet above the base flood elevation. Mixed-use structures with no dwelling units and no residents below two feet above base flood elevation, must be elevated or floodproofed, in accordance with FEMA floodproofing standards at 44 CFR 60.3(c)(3)(ii) or successor standard, up to at least two feet above base flood elevation. escorte sector maps.google.bt . . . escorte de lux constanța 2016 bullhornmarketplace.net   All Critical Actions . . . escorte herculane listie.com within the 500-year (or 0.2 percent annual chance) floodplain must be elevated or floodproofed (in accordance with the FEMA standards) to the higher of the 500-year floodplain elevation or three feet above the 100-year floodplain elevation. If the 500-year floodplain is unavailable, and the Critical Action is in the 100-year floodplain, then the structure must be elevated or floodproofed at least three feet above the 100-year floodplain elevation. escorte de fete www.fremcoelectricinc.org

HUD also included a directive for grantees to take “continued sea level rise” into account. Chapter VI(A) § 7 requires grantees to:

Promote sound, sustainable long-term recovery planning informed by a post-disaster evaluation of hazard risk, especially construction standards and land-use decisions that reflect responsible floodplain and wetland management and take into account continued sea level rise, if applicable; and coordinate with other local and regional planning efforts to ensure consistency. This information should be based on the history of FEMA flood mitigation efforts and take into account projected increase in sea level (if applicable) and the frequency and intensity of precipitation events. escorte aiud www.powengineeringinc.com (emphasis added).

However, other federal infrastructure spending remains subject only to the Carter-era rules.

The hurricane season of 2017 should be a wake-up call. escorte campulung muscel downundercafe.com We need to get serious about flood risks and infrastructure. Those risks are only going to increase as sea level rises and extreme weather becomes more common. 

Dam safety

In February 2017, the Oroville Dam in California faced a risk of failure after heavy rains, leading to the evacuation of 188,000 people. zip escorte survepuhastus.unisonlibrary.com The dam’s emergency spillway came near to collapse. As reported in the Sacramento Bee:

One day after water started running over the emergency structure, the hillside had eroded so badly that dam officials feared the lip of the emergency spillway would crumble, releasing a “wall of water” on communities below the dam. That necessitated the evacuation. escorte dame realtyreview.net

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Faced with imminent disaster, dam operators then dramatically ramped up water releases over the main spillway, which lowered lake levels to the point that water stopped flowing over the emergency spillway.

In April 2017, after the near-collapse of the Oroville Dam, Democratic House members asked the GAO for a thorough review of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) safety efforts, since FERC licenses hydroelectric dams. An independent forensic review found that the crisis resulted from systemic failures and concluded:

Although the practice of dam safety has certainly improved since the 1970s, the fact that this incident happened to the owner of the tallest dam in the United States, under regulation of a federal agency, with repeated evaluation by reputable outside consultants, in a state with a leading dam safety regulatory program, is a wake-up call for everyone involved in dam safety. escorte costesti arges redplum.us . . . Challenging current assumptions on what constitutes “best practice” in our industry is overdue.

The federal government regulates the safety of only a small proportion of dams in the United States. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, in 2015, there were more than 15,000 dams classified as “high-hazard potential,” a number that had increased by a third since 2005. The federal government owns less than 5 percent of the nation’s dams; the remainder are generally regulated by state governments. The federal government issues dam safety guidelines, but they are not mandatory. The national flood safety program is established by 33 U. S. Code § 467f and includes provisions for training and other support of state programs. According to FEMA, nine states (Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Vermont, and Wyoming) lack the power to require owners of high-hazard dams to prepare emergency action plans covering evacuation and other responses. Clearly, more needs to be done to ensure the safety of our country’s dams.

Estimating maximum flows

Even putting aside the impacts of climate change and land use change, there are a lot of uncertainties about the designation of 100-year or 500-year floods, which are key to planning for important infrastructure such as dams and levees and also for flood maps. For inland flooding, estimates are based on hydrological gauges in streams. (Hurricanes, on the other hand, are fairly rare events, so the database for them is inherently limited.) There may be a limited number of gauges in some areas, or they may not have been in operation very long. Also, gauges may be inaccurate, particularly in periods of high flow. Efforts are made to adjust for some of these issues, for example with comparisons to gauges in nearby areas. But this involves judgment calls.

In addition, we don’t have a theoretical basis for predicting the statistical distribution of river flows over time. The federal government did a study and found that, of the standard distributions used by statisticians, one called the Pearson Type III distribution with log transformation worked the best for fitting the data on high stream flows (i.e., floods). (This is basically a normal “bell curve” that has been stretched in one direction, or “skewed.”) But this is an approximation since we don’t know the true shape of the probability distribution. So the statistical method being used is only approximately right to begin with.

By definition, increasingly rare events are increasingly unlikely to be found in the record of the time period for which we have data. That means that there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty about high-end estimates, which involve rare events like 500-year floods. For example, in a situation studied by the National Research Council in 2000, the expected discharge for the 100-year flood was 4,310 cubic feet of water per second (cfs), the upper confidence limit was 6,176 cfs, and the lower limit was 3,008 cfs. So basically, what we know is that there’s a 90 percent chance that the 100-year flow would involve somewhere between 3,008 cfs and 6,176 cfs, a difference of a factor of two.

What Should Be Done?

Congress needs to fully fund the levee safety program

Trump needs to reinstate Obama’s infrastructure flood safety executive order

If President Trump does not revive the Obama order, Congress needs to enact legislation to do so.

The dam safety program needs to be revamped

FERC needs to assume responsibility for regulating and inspecting the subset of non-federal dams with the highest hazard levels.

FEMA needs to be more explicit about uncertainties in flood modeling and work toward improvements

FEMA should prioritize research on improved modeling techniques that incorporate climate change and landscape changes that increase flood risk. FEMA and other agencies should also take a precautionary approach to federal infrastructure planning, using a margin of safety to account for uncertainties.